“Jehovah’s Witnesses continue to exert a powerful influence on individuals, showcasing that their fear tactics and the threat of shunning remain effective.”
Written by Lester Somrah - January 14, 2024
The 2023 Service Year Report shows amongst others, the number of publishers who submitted a field service report for at least one (1) calendar month during the period September 1st 2022 to August 31st 2023. This is shown by the statistics in the Peak Publishers and Average Publishers columns.
Religious Induction - Individuals who submit a field service report
Recruitment – These are new individuals who are approved as congregation publishers during the 2023 Service Year and subsequently submitted a field service report for at least one (1) calendar month during the 2023 Service Year.
Reactivation – These are congregation publishers (either unbaptized or baptized) who were previously inactive, faders, disfellowshipped or disassociated individuals, who were approved by their local congregation elders to resume participation in field service activities and subsequently submitted a field service report for at least one (1) calendar month during the 2023 Service Year.
Ecclesiastical Relinquishment – Individuals who no longer submit a field service report
Inactive – These are congregation publishers who did not submit a field service report for at least six (6) consecutive months during the 2023 Service Year. Each congregation is mandated by the Governing Body of Jehovah's Witnesses to maintain an updated list of inactive publishers. This list reviewed both by the congregation’s body of elders as well as at each biannual visit of the circuit overseer.
Faders - In the context of Jehovah's Witnesses, the term "fader" typically refers to a congregation publisher who gradually distances themselves from the activities and meetings of the Jehovah's Witness congregation without formally disassociating or being disfellowshipped. The process of fading involves reducing or ceasing participation in Witness activities, such as meetings, field service, and social events, while maintaining a level of association with family and friends within the Jehovah's Witness community.
Disfellowshipped Persons - a disfellowshipped person is a baptized congregation publisher who has been expelled or excommunicated from the congregation due to serious violations of the religion’s moral or doctrinal standards. Disfellowshipping is a disciplinary measure that the Jehovah's Witness elders may take when a member is deemed to have committed a serious sin and has not demonstrated sufficient repentance.
The process typically involves a judicial committee, which is a group of congregation elders responsible for investigating and making decisions on matters of serious wrongdoing. If a member is found guilty of a serious sin, such as adultery, theft, or apostasy, and is not perceived as genuinely repentant, the judicial committee may announce the decision to disfellowship that individual. One way to evade a judicial committee is to submit a letter of disassociation.
Once a person is disfellowshipped, they are shunned by the Jehovah's Witness community. Jehovah's Witnesses are instructed to limit or cut off all social and spiritual contact with the disfellowshipped person. The purpose of disfellowshipping is viewed as a means of maintaining the moral and spiritual purity of the congregation and encouraging the individual to repent and return to the faith. This applies both to adults and minors who are baptized congregation publishers.
Since a disfellowshipped person is no longer one of Jehovah's Witnesses, any monthly field service report that they may submit is rejected by their congregation elders.
Disassociated Person - a disassociated person is a baptized congregation publisher who has voluntarily chosen to sever their formal ties with the organization. A publisher may choose to disassociate from Jehovah's Witnesses for various reasons, such as disagreement with specific teachings, changes in personal beliefs, or objections to the policies of Jehovah's Witnesses.
Disassociation is also a tool used by some publishers who are have committed serious violations of the religion’s moral or doctrinal standards, to evade a judicial committee.
This decision is typically communicated to the congregation in writing or during a meeting with elders. The congregation is then informed of the publisher’s decision, and similar to disfellowshipped individuals, members are instructed to limit or cut off social and spiritual contact with the disassociated person and are treated similarly to someone who has been disfellowshipped in that they are shunned by members of the Jehovah's Witness community. Jehovah's Witnesses are instructed to limit or cut off social and spiritual contact with the disassociated person.
A disassociated person is generally either a fader or inactive publisher and as such, they would have not submitted a field service report for at least one (1) Service Year.
The distinction between disfellowshipped and disassociated individuals is that disfellowshipping is a disciplinary action imposed by the elders due to serious violations of moral or doctrinal standards, whereas disassociation is a voluntary action initiated by the individual. Both disfellowshipped and disassociated individuals are subject to shunning within the Jehovah's Witness community.
Both disfellowshipped and disassociated individuals are officially former Jehovah's Witnesses, also called ex-JWs, as a Record of Disfellowshipping, Disassociation, or Judicial Reproof is generated for such persons.
Jehovah's Witnesses are regularly reminded to shun both disfellowshipped and disassociated individuals. Shunning refers to the practice of deliberately avoiding and cutting off social and religious interaction with an individual who has been disfellowshipped or disassociated. Shunning is also a control tool used by Jehovah's Witnesses to prevent their members from openly questioning their beliefs; from voluntarily leaving the religion; and ultimately prevent members from exercising their own individual freedoms of religion, association, speech and expression.
Died – These are congregation publishers who passed away during the Service Year and would have submitted a monthly field service report prior to their passing.
During any given period, such as a Service Year or a calendar year, there can be movement of publishers between the above two groups. For example, a disfellowshipped or disassociated individual could be re-admitted into the Jehovah's Witness community and subsequently submit a field service report for at least one (1) calendar month. Conversely, a new publisher could become inactive and no longer submit a field service report for the remainder of the Service Year.
Publisher Increase, Decrease and Stagnant Growth – For a given country or the global grand total in a service year report, where:
This is the 1st post-pandemic Service Year in which the 3-year rolling average is not affected by the statistics of the 2020 Service Year Report. From a mathematical perspective, any changes that results in a positive numerical value in the 2023 Service Year Report (as was the case in the 2021 and 2022 Reports), will cause the rolling average curves to ascend. This is shown in the graphs below.
Table 1 below shows the number of instances of publisher increase, decrease and zero growth in different regions, for the 2023 Service Year. Africa contributed the most to the publisher increase with 37 countries reports increases, whilst in Europe, Jehovah’s Witnesses struggled for minds and hearts of individuals. Jehovah’s Witnesses fought a losing battle in the Caribbean and the Americas, with only 12 countries out of 56 reporting a publisher increase.
Table 1 - 2023 Service Year Report - Instances of Publisher Growth
| Location | Negative Increase | Zero Increase | 1 to 5 % | 6 to 10 % | 11 to 15 % | 16 to 20% | 21% and over | Total (above zero %) | Total (zero % and below) |
| Africa | 8 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 10 | |
| Asia | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 11 | ||||
| Caribbean | 18 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 23 | |
| Central America | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |||||
| Europe | 12 | 8 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 20 | ||
| Indian Ocean | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||
| Micronesia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |||
| Mid-Atlantic | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||
| Middle East | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |||||
| North America | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |||
| North Pacific | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||
| Other Lands | 33 | 0 | 33 | ||||||
| Polynesia | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||
| South America | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | ||||
| South Atlantic Ocean | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| South Pacific Ocean | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | |||
| Total | 105 | 32 | 66 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 102 | 137 |
Table 2 below shows the number of instances of publisher increase, decrease and zero growth in different regions, for the 1991 to 2023 Service Years. This table gives a much better understanding of the different dynamics of Jehovah’s Witnesses. For these service years, Africa contributed the most to the publisher increase with 1348 instances of publisher increases. In Europe, the Caribbean and the Americas, Jehovah’s Witnesses struggled for minds and hearts of individuals, with 2190 instances of increases against 1394 instances of publisher decline.
Table 2 - 1991 to 2023- Number of Service Years - Instances of Publisher Growth
| Location | Negative Increase | Zero Increase | 1 to 5 % | 6 to 10 % | 11 to 15 % | 16 to 20% | 21% and over | Total (above zero %) | Total (zero % and below) |
| Africa | 158 | 84 | 736 | 395 | 107 | 49 | 61 | 1348 | 242 |
| Asia | 41 | 61 | 250 | 138 | 48 | 27 | 44 | 507 | 102 |
| Caribbean | 966 | 148 | 413 | 101 | 40 | 12 | 566 | 1114 | |
| Central America | 16 | 10 | 135 | 36 | 7 | 178 | 26 | ||
| Europe | 339 | 349 | 651 | 116 | 42 | 21 | 49 | 879 | 688 |
| Indian Ocean | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 11 |
| Micronesia | 108 | 20 | 59 | 47 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 144 | 128 |
| Mid-Atlantic | 6 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 14 | ||
| Middle East | 10 | 11 | 84 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 119 | 21 |
| North America | 41 | 50 | 105 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 150 | 91 |
| North Pacific | 36 | 28 | 46 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 78 | 64 |
| Other Lands | 6 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 28 | 6 | ||
| Polynesia | 4 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 21 | 8 | |||
| South America | 32 | 27 | 324 | 78 | 11 | 4 | 417 | 59 | |
| South Atlantic Ocean | 31 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 44 |
| South Pacific Ocean | 165 | 52 | 183 | 72 | 32 | 13 | 29 | 329 | 217 |
| Total | 1968 | 867 | 3032 | 1079 | 341 | 157 | 222 | 4831 | 2835 |
All African countries are categorized as "developing countries" by notable institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations. Consequently, resources such as the Internet, mobile devices, desktop computers, and laptops are limited in these regions. This scarcity of access to information beyond what is provided by Jehovah’s Witnesses has been leveraged by them to their advantage. Consequently, there is minimal opportunity for individuals in these areas to independently scrutinize the religious beliefs and practices of Jehovah’s Witnesses. This circumstance has created conducive conditions for sustained mass recruitment into what some consider a "harmful, destructive sect" over the course of many decades.
The Caribbean region, stretching from Trinidad & Tobago in the south to Cuba and encompassing countries like Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and Haiti, is deeply influenced by religion. Jehovah’s Witnesses have strategically utilized this religious backdrop to their advantage. However, a significant number of individuals in the region find offense in the fact that Jehovah’s Witnesses consider themselves the "best religion" and criticize other faiths. Moreover, their stance on blood transfusions has contributed to a negative perception of the group. Despite this, the majority of Caribbean countries have widespread Internet access and exposure to mainstream media from the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. As a result, information and news regarding Jehovah’s Witnesses, beyond what is published on their official website or literature, are readily accessible.
Against this background, Jehovah’s Witnesses in the Caribbean are having a difficult time recruiting individuals into their religion. Whilst In some islands Jehovah’s Witnesses have experienced success, for the most part they have recorded twice as much decreases in publishers during the 1991 to 2023 Service Years.
The European and the American Divide – Religion holds significant influence in South and Central America, where many countries are categorized as "developing." Despite being predominantly developing nations, most individuals in these regions have some level of Internet access. Jehovah’s Witnesses have strategically capitalized on this, coupled with their religious pledge of a "better life under God’s Kingdom," to attract individuals to their faith. This approach has led to 595 recorded instances of increases in publishers from the Service Year of 1991 to 2023.
However, the situation in North America and Europe is the opposite. Despite the highly developed status of these regions and the quick availability of information and news about Jehovah’s Witnesses not published on their official channels, these areas show more instances of publisher increases than decreases.
When combining Europe, the Americas, and the Caribbean, an unfortunate trend emerges—these regions collectively exhibit more instances of publisher increases than decreases (2190 vs 1394). This outcome is consistent with the characterization of Jehovah’s Witnesses as a high-control group, a cult (see the BITE Model by Dr. Steven Hassan for details), and a labeled “harmful destructive sect”. Jehovah’s Witnesses have successfully employ the allure of a “better life under God’s Kingdom,” consistent fear tactics, and the threat of shunning to dissuade current members from voluntarily leaving the religious community. Consequently, a subgroup of Jehovah’s Witnesses known as PIMOs (Physically In, Mentally Out) maintains outward appearances and submits monthly field service reports, even though they no longer fully endorse the teachings or doctrines of Jehovah’s Witnesses.
While some Jehovah’s Witnesses may exit through the Relinquishment route, Table 2 illustrates that Jehovah’s Witnesses compensate for such losses through effective religious recruitment methods and strategies.
Taking Table 2 at face value provides strong evidence that Jehovah's Witnesses continue to exert a powerful influence on individuals, showcasing that fear tactics and the threat of shunning remain effective.
The Peak and Average Publishers in the Service Report are publishers who submit a field report for at least one (1) calendar month during a service year.
The number of individuals baptized are congregation publishers who are already included in both the peak and average publishers statistics. I have observed some individuals subtract the Average Publishers from Baptisms of a given service year to obtain a “Missing Publisher” figure. However this “Missing Publisher” is really unbaptized publishers and publishers who were baptized in previous services years. Thus this methodology described is both mathematically and statistically flawed.
Some individuals assert that Jehovah’s Witnesses are experiencing a decline in membership, often citing images of partially filled Kingdom Halls, Assembly Halls, or rented venues for large gatherings, along with instances of Kingdom Halls being sold and congregations dissolving or merging, to substantiate their claims. However, the attendance at a meeting facility in one country or city does not necessarily reflect the situation in other locations. In developing countries with restricted access to independent information due to limited Internet connectivity, where critiquing religious beliefs is deemed offensive, Jehovah’s Witnesses' meeting venues can be filled to their full capacity..
It can be tempting to draw additional conclusions regarding the decline in Jehovah’s Witnesses' numbers. However, making such assessments is challenging due to the limitations of the Service Year Reports, which only present statistics on active Jehovah’s Witnesses who have submitted at least one (1) field service report. Information about individuals who have exited the religion (whether due to death, inactivity, fading, disfellowshipping, or disassociation) is held exclusively by Watchtower officials in New York and is not disclosed to the public. The disclosure of the number of active members who passed away has only occurred during specific circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, and wars, with the Ukraine-Russia conflict serving as a recent example.
This graph is the most important one and is shown below.
The area under the curve above the x-axis (showned as the grey shaded area) shows positive y-values of the 3-year rolling average of new publishers for each Service Year. These positive y-values are evidence that individuals entering the Jehovah’s Witness community, individuals who a submit at least one (1) field service report (new publishers/recruits/reactivated persons) exceed those exiting the Jehovah’s Witness community, resulting in a net increase in Jehovah’s Witnesses for a service year.
However, these positive y-values are also declining for each successive Service Year, evident that the number of individuals entering the Jehovah’s Witness community, are decreasing for each successive Service Year.
When the curve crosses the x-axis and the y-values of the 3-year rolling average of new publishers become negative, the reverse happens - those exiting the Jehovah’s Witness community is more than entering the Jehovah’s Witness community, at this point it can be said that Jehovah’s Witnesses are losing members.
At this present time, as long as the number of new publishers/recruits/reactivated persons exceeds those exiting there will always be a net increase in Jehovah’s Witnesses each service year. The number of Jehovah’s Witnesses who “fade”, become inactive, disassociate and are disfellowshipped are presently way too small to cause any significant impact on the net increase of Jehovah’s Witnesses each Service Year. As highlighted above, Jehovah’s Witnesses have successfully used the allure of a “better life under God’s Kingdom,” consistent fear tactics, and the threat of shunning to dissuade current members from voluntarily leaving the religious community.
Are Jehovah’s Witnesses Losing Members? For the above-mentioned reasons, the answer is "No". At this present time Jehovah’s Witnesses are not losing members in droves nor is there any mass exodus of the faith's membership.
Lester Somrah writes about the beliefs and practices of Jehovah’s Witnesses on his social media platforms and was baptized as a member in 1998.
